The United States is considering a long-term military presence in Iraq, which will not have the scope of the current occupation but will still be capable of mounting independent operations, The Washington Post reported Sunday.
Citing US military officers and other unnamed officials, the newspaper said the plan is based on assessments that a sharp drawdown of troops is likely to begin by the middle of next year, with roughly two-thirds of the current force of 150,000 moving out by late 2008 or early 2009.
The questions officials are grappling with are not whether the US presence will be cut, but how quickly, to what level and to what purpose, the report said.
A reduction of troops, some officials argue, would demonstrate to anti-American factions that the occupation will not last forever while reassuring Iraqi allies that the United States does not intend to abandon the country, the paper pointed out.
Some military officials said that even if a total pullout is the goal, it could take a year to execute it, The Post said.
One official estimated that with only one major route from the country -- through southern Iraq to Kuwait -- it would take at least 3,000 large convoys some 10 months to remove US military gear and personnel, not counting the several thousand combat vehicles that would be needed to protect such an operation, the report said.
US officials also calculate that underneath the anti-American rhetoric, even Shiite radicals such as cleric Moqtada al-Sadr do not really want to see a total US pullout, especially while they feel threatened by Sunni insurgents, according to the paper.
The centerpiece of the plan would be a reinforced mechanized infantry division of around 20,000 soldiers assigned to guarantee the security of the Iraqi government and to assist Iraqi forces or their US advisers if they get into fights they can't handle, The Post said.
Second, a training and advisory force of close to 10,000 troops would work with Iraqi military and police units.
In addition, officials envision a small but significant Special Operations unit focused on fighting the Sunni insurgent group Al-Qaeda in Iraq.
"I think you'll retain a very robust counterterror capability in this country for a long, long time," a Pentagon official is quoted by the paper as saying.
Finally, the headquarters and logistical elements to command and supply such a force would total more than 10,000 troops, The Post noted.
